Hi everyone. It’s been a really long time since I posted anything. Why is that the case? Well, I wrote a book. And then I started Grad School (getting my doctorate). I’m still knee deep in my doctorate work, but I absolutely love the Hall of Fame.
Until I see stupid stuff like this:
Hey, cool, Lee Smith finally made it (Remember that reliever list I never did? He was a big one on there)…wait, what was that first name?
Harold Baines? Harold Baines is a Hall of Famer? How did we allow this to happen? Well, I have yet to not have a day where this fact annoys me, so I figured it’s a good time to get back into this business. I revamped my score system for this new go around. I added a peak analysis of each player’s best seven seasons (according to fWAR) into their total scores and backed off of total bases. I wanted to make it more fair for players that had somewhat short careers, and it came down to eliminating two stats: hits or total bases. I ended up deciding to take out total bases because I felt that by counting hits along with each type of hit already counted total bases in a round about way, so I took them out. Besides, a player could play for a long time and get a lot of hits easily and therefore get a lot of total bases.
With the official BBWAA announcements coming on Tuesday night, I figured I’ll wait for Wednesday to post the first player, in case there’s a big change in the balloting. Right now, it looks like Rivera, Halladay and Edgar are all locks (each are above 90%) with Mussina on the bubble. Schilling, Bonds and Clemens are each a few public votes shy of the needed 75%, but each have lost a lot of ground when the full ballot is announced. Walker has made a serious jump so far in his penultimate year on the ballot but is still a little too far off for consideration this year.
Once the ballots are announced on Tuesday, I’d like to do an almost daily posting, but with grad school dominating my time, I may not be able to.
I’m looking forward to doing this again. See everyone Wednesday.
I know it’s an exercise in futility, but sometimes an idea strikes me and I feel like writing about it. Here are two pitchers. One is a Hall of Famer, the other is currently on the ballot. See if you can tell the difference between them:
Pitcher A: 4413.1 IP, 682 starts, 2607 K/1500 BB. ERA- of 86. ERA of 3.54. BAA of .252. 356 HR allowed. WHIP of 1.31
Pitcher B: 3562.2 IP, 537 starts, 2813 K/785 BB. ERA- of 82. ERA of 3.68. BAA of .252. 376 HR allowed. WHIP of 1.19
Player A pitched on the one of the greatest collections of talent the NL has ever seen, and thus won over 300 games (in 150 more starts). Player B only managed to win 270 games while being on some mediocre teams during the same time frame. And, Player B did all of that in the AL East where some incredibly good hitters parks are located.
Yet Player A made the Hall of Fame on first ballot and Player B is languishing on the ballot as we speak.
I’m not saying that Mike Mussina is a definite Hall of Famer (and I detest arguments that say “This guy’s a Hall of Famer, so this other guy must be one!”), but I do think that we, as a baseball culture, have elevated a guy like Tom Glavine higher than he should be due to his win totals. I ranked him in the low 170’s, and there was still part of my brain that was telling me that was wrong. But, there is no doubt in my mind that Mussina was the better pitcher between the two.
The question essentially becomes, do Glavine’s ~900 more IP outweigh the 200 more K’s and 800 fewer walks that Mussina had (again, in much less time against a much tougher league) with basically the same ERA and better WHIP and without as much of a benefit of a wide strike zone like Glavine (and Maddux to a degree) was claimed to have gotten.
I can easily see Mussina being the next big cause a la Tim Raines and Bert Blyleven. And that’s one I probably would get behind.
Recently, Joe Buck had an interview with Pete Rose on Buck’s new show. Of course, the topic of Rose’s permanent ban from the game was brought up, and Rose basically said that he should be reinstated (big shock) because he was never told specifically to stop betting.
The 2017 BBWAA ballots for induction into the Baseball Hall of Famer were announced back on January 18th. The results were interesting. Gaining induction were Tim Raines (on his 10th and final ballot), Jeff Bagwell (on his 7th ballot) and Ivan Rodriguez (on his first ballot). Just barely missing the cut were Trevor Hoffman (on his second try) and Vlad Guerrero (on his first ballot). Both got above 70%, so they will get in within two years time (and probably next year). Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mike Mussina and Edgar Martinez all took strong steps forward, while Curt Schilling went backwards and other players stalled. There’s a lot of good and bad to look at on this year’s results, so let’s start with the good.
Yes, this post is a couple of days late. After reworking the center field post to up the median, it made sense to do it in right field as well, since the Veterans Committee has really watered down each position. There were 10 center fielders voted in by the Veterans Committee, compared to eight by the BBWAA. Out of the 24 right fielders inducted into the Hall of Fame, 11 were inducted by the Veterans Committee, and with very few exceptions are some of the lowest ranking players in Cooperstown. As such, instead of the typical median score, a modified one using the lowest ranking BBWAA-inductee (Wee Willie Keeler) as the base score will be used. That gives a median score of 29056, between Roberto Clemente and Paul Waner.
Centerfield is the most glorious position on the diamond, so it should have the highest standards for induction to Cooperstown. If a player is going to be in the same group as Ty Cobb, Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle, then he better be one of the best of all-time. That’s why the median score of 19553 seems like it’s lower than it should be, ranking between Kirby Puckett and Earl Averill. It’s brought down quite a bit by having three players (Edd Roush, Hack Wilson and Lloyd Waner) rank in the bottom 200’s, and four additional players (Duke Snider, Max Carey, Earle Combs and Larry Doby) rank below 150. So, it’s time to up the ante. Snider is the worst CF that the BBWAA elected, and setting him as the bottom score resets the median to 28717, between Griffey and Hamilton. Now, let’s see how some hopefuls do:
Left field is always difficult to judge due to the fact that it is typically occupied by big bulky sluggers who are poor defenders. As such, those few that can actually field well (Yaz, Rickey, Bonds) tend to get a boosted ranking because they can stand out more. Still, if a player isn’t a big power hitter, it’s tough for them to be considered a great left fielder. Left fielders have a median score of 22948, which would be Fred Clarke’s score with 19 left fielders in Cooperstown already. Here’s how a few outsiders look: